US Missile Defence Mission and Growing Arctic Capabilities in Focus during a Defence and Security Committee Visit to Alaska and Seattle, Washington.

The threat from advanced missile systems combined with increasingly capable drones is on display with unsettling frequency across a growing number of conflicts in the Alliance’s near neighbourhood. Ominously, growing military cooperation among autocratic regimes in Moscow-Beijing-Tehran-Pyongyang has been particularly focused on the exchange of missile and drone capabilities and knowhow – the impact of this collaboration is escalating existing conflicts and risks across the globe.  

How NATO and Allies are adapting to this challenge is a central focus of the Defence and Security Committee’s reporting and issue study in 2024: It also served as the uniting theme of the recent DSC visit to Alaska and Washington State, from 2-6 September. United States Congressmen Michael R. Turner, Head of the US Delegation to the NATO PA, and Rick Larsen, Rapporteur for the Sub-Committee on Transatlantic Defence and Security Cooperation, joined by Congressman Donald Norcross, led the delegation through a dynamic agenda that included a visit to the US Army Launch site for anti-ballistic missiles at Fort Greely, Alaska, as well as several defence industry leaders in missile and space technologies in Washington State’s 2nd Congressional District. The visit also included stops in Seattle to the US Army’s Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Microsoft Headquarters, and the NATO Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) at the Pacific Northwest Mission Accelerator Center (PNW MAC). The DSC delegation consisted of 31 members of parliament from across the NATO Alliance representing 19 nations.  

The Need to Strengthen Allied & NATO Integrated Missile Defence  

Today there is a clear and present demand for modern, scalable, and integrated missile defences across the NATO Alliance capable of defending Allied territory and populations from complex air threats. Allies have made integrated air and missile defence (IAMD) a key focus at the last two summits – Allies noted their resolve to defend against all air and missile threats by enhancing Allied IAMD based on a 360-degree approach.  

As the Committee’s General Report on missile defence notes, there is an urgent imperative for Allies to invest in new missile defence systems, which means not just interceptors and launchers, but also the land and space-based radars and sensors to track threats. Effective Alliance-wide integrated air and missile defence will also act as a robust deterrent, thereby reducing potentially escalatory behaviour. But as the Head of the US Delegation warned his colleagues during the visit: “We are at a critical juncture – Allies do not have the air and missile defences necessary to meet the moment. NATO Allies must invest in an Alliance-wide robust modern missile defence system now, not only to defeat any potential threat, but also to serve as an active deterrent to increasingly emboldened adversaries.”  

Compared to other NATO Allies, the United States maintains the most significant fixed and mobile air and missile defence capabilities. A key component of this is the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) initiative, which is an anti-ballistic missile system designed to knock out missile threats during the exoatmospheric (or space) phase of a long-range missile trajectory. During their visit to Alaska, members of the delegation had the opportunity to view the US GMD missile field at Fort Greely. The impressive size and scope of the installation served as a tangible demonstration of the levels of investment needed across Allied territory to bring the Alliance’s shields up to the required levels. 

Fort Greely’s ground-based interceptors represent the largest installation of the GMD weapon system, which is overseen by the US Missile Defence Agency. The US Army has operational control over the weapon system, with support from both the US Air Force and the US Space Force. The reason for such significant architecture in Alaska is the region’s outsized geographic advantage: As the commander of the US 11th Airborne Division based at Fort Wainwright quipped: “Whoever controls Alaska, controls the world.”  

Reestablishing Arctic Dominance – New US Investments in the Arctic 

The delegation’s visit to Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks, Alaska provided the delegation with a command briefing at the 11th Airborne Division. Re-established in June 2022, the Division serves as the foundation of the US Army’s expanding Arctic capabilities. The visit to Fort Wainwright came not long after the US Department of Defense published its latest Arctic Strategy white paper. The new strategy is based on the core assumptions that both climate change and great power competition are driving fundamental change in the region, and the United States needs to adapt its Arctic approach accordingly.  

As the Division deputy commander made clear, Alaska’s vast northern territory is vital for defending the US homeland, and, across the state, the US military has installed significant aerospace and maritime early warning and control systems and links into the vast signals and command infrastructure of the bi-national US-Canada North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD). In addition to its strategic Arctic location, briefers noted its Alaska positions also allow for rapid force projection into the Indo-Pacific. In addition, the broader North American Arctic allows for both the US and Canada to project power to Europe and defend vital transatlantic sea lanes of communication. 

Russia-China Arctic cooperation is growing as ice floes recede opening new avenues for trade and areas for mineral extraction. Already, the Arctic is a vital and growing strategic variable for Russian military and economic strategy, and China, which declared itself a near Arctic state in 2018, has been seeking new ways to anchor its military and economic footprint across the region ever since. 

To avoid being at a strategic disadvantage in this evolving new Arctic security environment, briefers noted, the United States and its other Arctic Allies and partners need to increase their ability to operate and cooperate in the Arctic, as well as invest in the capabilities to allow them to have greater vision into the rapidly evolving threat picture. US briefers used the alliterative mnemonic enhance, engage, and exercise to summarise this new effort to re-establish Arctic dominance.  

Local Dynamic Defence Industry in the Aerospace and Space Leading the Way in Washington State 

Through their tour of Washington’s 2nd Congressional District and then down into Seattle, the delegation was able to get a real flavour for the significant levels of investment in aerospace and space innovation. Washington state is home to some of the world’s largest and most innovative aerospace corporations – a simple drive by the Boeing facilities and on-site airport is a demonstration of the size and scope of the behemoth company’s operations. As Rick Larsen told the delegation while visiting his district north of Seattle, the demand for aerospace and defence-related engineers only continues to grow as demand surges across the Alliance to scale defense industrial production. 

The delegation visited three companies emblematic of the scope and scale of the region’s defence sector innovators – Hexcel, Team, and Karman Space and Defense. Hexcel’s leading-edge honeycomb design production makes it a standout in the production of carbon fiber reinforcements and resin systems – Hexcel’s products feed into both commercial and defence aerospace productions; the company’s products reinforce both fixed and rotary wing aircraft across the Alliance, the company also feeds into spacecraft manufacturing. Team Corporation, on the other hand, designs high (and dynamic)-frequency hydraulic systems to gauge space and aircraft durability when exposed to any form of vibrations. Applied to air and space craft, such testing is essential to determine the viability of high-value systems from take-off to flight to landing prior to actual use.  

The delegation’s visit to Karman allowed delegates to get a better understanding of the company’s support of advanced missiles and launchers to a range of other major defence and space systems operating across the air, land, sea, and space domains. Karman briefers reviewed a set of key subsystems and deliverables supporting NATO missions abroad including missiles systems, counter unmanned aerial systems, and advanced missile launchers. When asked about the challenges of meeting new demand levels given the significant strains on Allied militaries post Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, briefers noted they were only constrained by how quickly they could take on new engineers and expand facilities to meet the demand surge. All companies the delegation visited noted a significant demand increase for their products and services. Each expressed confidence, however, in demand durability, which in turn provides the reassurance necessary for the expanded investments needed to meet it. 

NATO DIANA Cooperation with the Pacific Northwest Mission Accelerator (PNW MAC) 

In Seattle, the delegation was briefed on ways NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic initiative is working with expertise in the Seattle area to strengthen future Allied defence industrial innovation. The PNW MAC was selected to work with eight different companies as part of the first edition of the NATO DIANA Bootcamp programme, which seeks to help new defence startups actualise their new ideas into a credible product that is scalable for use by Allied governments.  

The programme involves six monthly two-day training sessions with local entrepreneurs who have built their own companies from startup to successful business models. As briefers noted, several of the companies the PNW MAC shepherded through the NATO DIANA Bootcamp are already in talks with the US Department of Defense, and three have entered a memorandum of understanding for collaboration on a new underwater surveillance and intervention system. The PNW MAC has been selected to continue as the operationalised accelerator for the NATO DIANA 2025 Bootcamp programme. 

Increasing the Safety and Security of the Digital Ecosystem: A Visit to Microsoft Corporation  

The delegation rounded out its visit to the Pacific Northwest with a stop for briefings and demonstrations at Microsoft Corporation Headquarters. As senior level Microsoft officials warned the delegation from the outset of the visit – Allies and their partners are faced with a rapidly evolving cyber threat landscape and, as one briefer put it bluntly, “we are currently losing the battle” to ensure the safety and security of the vital digital ecosystem.  

The size and scope of the threats to digital ecosystem security is jaw dropping. Microsoft noted hundreds of millions of attacks per day to its global systems, with over 4,000 password attacks blocked per second. In total, Microsoft threat intelligence tracks a growing list of unique threat groups – including several hundred nation-state supported groups, cybercriminal networks, and information operations teams.  

Many of the non-nation state groups are operating with the encouragement of their host states, predominantly Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. Over the past two years, 40% of all nation-state attacks focused on critical infrastructure. These attacks, briefers noted, seek to place ‘backdoors’ on infrastructure across the US and NATO Allies to hold critical infrastructure at potential future risk. In the case of the United States, briefers said, China has worked incessantly to have US infrastructure held at risk as a means of deterring US action to defend Taiwan in a potential future contingency. Microsoft notes the imperative of close cooperation between the US government and private sector companies to deny and deter such threats as everyone stands to lose if the nation’s critical infrastructure is jeopardised.  

Microsoft’s cooperation with Ukraine to thwart Russian cyber attacks and espionage is also significant. Russian cyber operations in Ukraine seek a range of targets, most focus on military assets and communications, but there are also many attempted destructive attacks on dual-use and vital-to-life civilian infrastructure. Russian cyber agents are also working relentlessly to gain intelligence on Allied military support flowing into the battlefield. Microsoft shares threat intelligence with Ukrainian officials and companies them on a 24/7/365-basis, briefers said. 

Given the vast cyber challenge facing it, Microsoft has created the Secure Future Initiative, pushing 34,000 engineers off development projects to focus on cyber security. The goal of the initiative is to make Microsoft the safest network in the world – “staying ahead of all attacks and blocking any possible entry point”, as one briefer noted. Microsoft leaders told delegates that Allied governments and parliaments can play a crucial role to support this effort today, particularly by working on implementing stronger legislative frameworks to help deter, defend and prosecute against cyber criminality. 

Escalating Disinformation Campaigns – NATO Allies as Primary Targets 

As reported in the Committee in recent years, Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea work both separately and together to undermine and thwart Allied initiatives and cohesion. Sometimes referred to as the Axis of Upheaval for their common counter-West aims, each of the state’s regimes puts a particular premium on the use of disinformation as an element of their hybrid conflict with NATO Allies, particularly the United States. Briefers told the delegation about Russia’s ‘Doppelganger’ campaign by way of example. 

Active since at least May 2022, Russia’s ‘Doppelganger’ campaign involves relatively sophisticated forgery of reputable international news outlets and government by URL hacking, or typosquatting, as it is known in the industry. The primary targets of the campaign are Western Europe (particularly Germany, France, and Italy), Ukraine, the United States, and Israel. The result is the inauthentic multi-platform promotion of spoofed domains by ‘sockpuppet’ accounts – briefers noted there are now over 1,000 doppelganger domains and over 47 unique branded outlets spewing out disinformation campaigns on what appear to be legitimate (and trusted) news sources for consumers.  

Microsoft executives also discussed the significant efforts to use disinformation influence operations to affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in the United States. In fact, 2024 is the first time in which Russia, China, and Iran all attempt to influence the outcome of the election. Each country is using its agents to develop a range of ways to influence voters’ decision-making, a novel addition to the nefarious actors’ efforts this year, briefers noted, is the degree to which they have worked to use artificial intelligence in their operations. 

Microsoft briefers, however, also noted to the delegation that pessimism should not prevail when looking at the challenge Allied governments and civil societies are facing. The reason for optimism, they noted, is their increasing ability to extend the use of AI and other innovations to supercharge cyber defences. Focused and stronger collaboration, they noted, will allow Allies and their partners to stay ahead in this challenging and ever evolving struggle to maintain security across our increasingly vital digital ecosystems. 

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Photos, courtesy of the US Army Joint Base Lewis- McCord, US Army Fort Greely, Systima-Karman and Hexcel.